# I Can See the Future!

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## Objective

Students will be able to use ratios to make predictions.

#### Big Idea

How do we use ratios to make predictions? Let's find out!

## Do Now

10 minutes

The first slides in the power point will be used for the do now.  I want the students to look at statistical questions and use their prior knowledge to determine if they are good questions.  I’m going to do a think-pair-share activity to support this learning.  The students need to recall information from prior learning so it will be good for them to hear what other’s have to say, especially for those that struggle with recall. (SMP 3)

## Setting the Stage

5 minutes

Begin the lesson by talking with the students about making a prediction.  Ask them what prediction means and to give you an example of a prediction they have made in their daily lives?  Student responses could include that they make predictions when they say a team is going to win or lose.  Weather-people make predictions daily on whether it will be sunny, raining, or snowing.  Teachers make predictions as to the success of a lesson.  Predictions are all about the chance of an event occurring or an estimation of how many times it will occur.

## The Heart of it All

25 minutes

Using the following slides (population, rolling the dice, rolling the dice again, and car colors) have the students use their own strategies to solve the problems.  Allow time for students to work independently and then have them justify their answers with their tablemates.  Then bring the group back for whole group discussion.

I’m anticipating that most students will use a ratio table to help them find the answer.  Students may set it up as an equation .92 x 1000 and they may even try to use equivalent fractions.  All possibilities are viable answers, but will need to be explained in words why it works.

Once the heart of the instruction is complete, the students should be ready for the activity.  They will need paper, pencil and a calculator for this activity.

## Mix-Freeze-Group

30 minutes

I chose this activity because the essence of the lesson is to get to students to understand how to make predictions with probability.  This activity supports SMP3 as they are working in groups of 2,3,4 and having to justify their answer to their group.

## Closure

15 minutes

The final question of the day supports the objective of learning to make predictions with probability.  I’m going to ask the students again, what it means to make a prediction and I will offer this up to the whole group.  Then I’m going to ask how this connects with probability?  Once we have discussed this as a whole group, I’m going to have them complete the final question from the power point.  This question not only makes them set up a probability (7/11 are red) but also makes them predict how many times it should happen when repeated 99 times.  (the connection between probability and predictions)