# Probability Notes

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## Objective

SWBAT create a display to show possible outcomes in an experiment

#### Big Idea

How do you know what could happen?

## Launch

5 minutes
• POD

As students enter the room, they will have a seat, take out their Problem of the Day (POD) sheet and begin to work on the question on the SMARTboard. The POD allows students to use MP 3 continually based on the discussions we have about the problem each day.

The POD today will be a review of the vocabulary terms that students worked on the day before (Vocabulary Foldable Lesson). They created foldables to use as a resource. The POD will ask them to describe the difference between theoretical and experimental probability? Please provide an example of each.

Student responses to this question will let me know if students understand the two terms. Can they give an example? Will they show me that they understand the difference between what could or should happen and what actually happens in the experiment? If not, we can address the gaps during the activity today.

## Explore

30 minutes

To start the activity today, I want to walk students through an experiment. I want to model the process for them to demonstrate probability. I will ask the class to tell me the probability of rolling a number cube and flipping a coin. I want to discuss the possible outcomes. Is this an experiment? How do we know what might happen? How do we count the outcomes? Are the outcomes dependent upon each other? I want to discuss how to display the possible outcomes. I want students to see vertical and horizontal tree diagrams and area models. After we discuss the options and outcomes, I will create a display for them to see and add to their notes. We will list all of the possible outcomes. I will also create a tree diagram and an area model display as an example for students to add to their notes.

As we work through the example, I want to have discussions about the outcomes and combinations of outcomes that are possible. What is the probability that you will get a tails and a 3? Do they understand what that represents? What is the probability that you will get a heads and an even number? Do they recognize (H,2) (H,4) and (H,6) are the possible outcomes that match that event? Do they see the outcomes in the displays? Is there another way to determine the outcomes? Do they understand the notation?

## Landing

5 minutes

The exit ticket will ask students to create either a tree diagram or an area model to display the possible outcomes when two coins are flipped? I want to see that students can create a display to represent the outcomes. If they can’t display the outcomes, we will revisit it tomorrow as the POD.