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# Experimental and Theoretical Probability

Lesson 3 of 6

## Objective: Students will be able to distinguish between and calculate theoretical and experimental probability.

## Big Idea: How come the chances of getting heads are 50% but in ten tries I got 8 heads? This lesson will help kids make sense of the rules versus real life.

*60 minutes*

#### Launch

*10 min*

**Opener: **As students enter the room, they will immediately pick up and begin working on the opener – Instructional Strategy - Process for openers. This method of working and going over the opener lends itself to allow students to construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others, which is **mathematical practice 3**.

**Learning Target:** After completion of the opener, I will address the day’s learning targets to the students. In today’s lesson, the intended target is, “I can distinguish between and calculate theoretical and experimental probability.” Students will jot the learning targets down in their agendas (our version of a student planner, there is a place to write the learning target for every day).

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#### Explore

*40 min*

Exp and Theo Probability Explore Narrative In this activity, students will be modeling probability using skittles (**MP 4**). It is really just a fun lesson, and a great way for students to explore the connection between experimental and theoretical probability. The must be precise (**MP 6**), however, and not eat any too soon!

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#### Summarize + Homework

*10 min*

As a summary to this lesson, I am going to have students answer 3 questions on experimental and theoretical probability. The purpose of this summary exercise is for me to see what knowledge they gained out of the skittles lab. I will have students work in their tables, and I will take volunteers to share answers.

Homework: With the remaining few minutes, I will let students get started on their homework assignment. Philosophy on Homework

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Heather, how long do you generally spend on lessons? For example, how many days did you take to teach experimental and theoretical probability? Thanks so much! LOVE your lessons!

| one year ago | Reply

Thanks Jennifer! Going Common Core was definitely a mindset change for my kids as well, but they have made great strides and I know yours will as well!

| one year ago | Reply

Heather,

I am a first year teacher in a district that has very outdated material and for months I have been struggling to come up with material and ideas on how I can push my students to collaborate and use higher-level problem solving skills.

I can't tell you how useful it has been to gather ideas from the lessons you post. You really have helped me push my students to learn in a way that they have never had to learn before. Thank you!!

| 2 years ago | Reply*Responding to Carolyn Helm*

Thanks so much! I am not much of a camera person, so I am glad the videos helped you!

| 3 years ago | Reply*Responding to cathy martinez*

Thank you so much :) I am just glad other teachers are able to find them useful! I wish a site like this would have been around when I started teaching!

| 3 years ago | Reply*Responding to Jake White*

I am glad you like the lesson, I hope you were able to adjust it to meet your needs!

| 3 years ago | Reply*expand comments*

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- UNIT 1: Introduction to Mathematical Practices
- UNIT 2: Proportional Reasoning
- UNIT 3: Percents
- UNIT 4: Operations with Rational Numbers
- UNIT 5: Expressions
- UNIT 6: Equations
- UNIT 7: Geometric Figures
- UNIT 8: Geometric Measurement
- UNIT 9: Probability
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- UNIT 11: Culminating Unit: End of Grade Review

- LESSON 1: Simple Events - What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards?
- LESSON 2: Compound Events - Visual Displays of Sample Spaces
- LESSON 3: Experimental and Theoretical Probability
- LESSON 4: Simulations - Can you design an experiment?
- LESSON 5: Probability Review
- LESSON 6: Probability Test