Experimental and Theoretical Probability

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Objective

Students will be able to distinguish between and calculate theoretical and experimental probability.

Big Idea

How come the chances of getting heads are 50% but in ten tries I got 8 heads? This lesson will help kids make sense of the rules versus real life.

Lesson Author

Heather Stephan

Elon, NC

Grade Level

Seventh grade

Subjects

Math

Probability (Math / Data Analysis)

theoretical probability

Statistics

Standards

7.SP.C.6

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

7.SP.C.7b

Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

MP1

Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

MP3

Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.

MP4

Model with mathematics.

MP6

Attend to precision.

Launch

10 minutes

Opener: As students enter the room, they will immediately pick up and begin working on the opener – Instructional Strategy - Process for openers. This method of working and going over the opener lends itself to allow students to construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others, which is mathematical practice 3.

Learning Target: After completion of the opener, I will address the day’s learning targets to the students. In today’s lesson, the intended target is, “I can distinguish between and calculate theoretical and experimental probability.” Students will jot the learning targets down in their agendas (our version of a student planner, there is a place to write the learning target for every day).

Explore

40 minutes

Fun Times!

Exp and Theo Probability Explore Narrative In this activity, students will be modeling probability using skittles (MP 4). It is really just a fun lesson, and a great way for students to explore the connection between experimental and theoretical probability. The must be precise (MP 6), however, and not eat any too soon!

Summarize + Homework

10 minutes

As a summary to this lesson, I am going to have students answer 3 questions on experimental and theoretical probability. The purpose of this summary exercise is for me to see what knowledge they gained out of the skittles lab. I will have students work in their tables, and I will take volunteers to share answers.

Homework: With the remaining few minutes, I will let students get started on their homework assignment. Philosophy on Homework

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