The first slides in the power point will be used for the do now. I want the students to look at statistical questions and use their prior knowledge to determine if they are good questions. I’m going to do a think-pair-share activity to support this learning. The students need to recall information from prior learning so it will be good for them to hear what other’s have to say, especially for those that struggle with recall. (SMP 3)
Begin the lesson by talking with the students about making a prediction. Ask them what prediction means and to give you an example of a prediction they have made in their daily lives? Student responses could include that they make predictions when they say a team is going to win or lose. Weather-people make predictions daily on whether it will be sunny, raining, or snowing. Teachers make predictions as to the success of a lesson. Predictions are all about the chance of an event occurring or an estimation of how many times it will occur.
Use the following slides to deepen their understanding about making predictions. I would begin by modeling for them how to think about what the problem is asking them to do (SMP1). For example, I will read the problem out loud. Then I will ask the students about the information given in the problem. They should tell you that they see 92% and 1000. Then I will ask them what 92% means. I’m looking for them to tell me “92 out of 100”. Some students may not recall that a percent is out of 100, so I usually say, “what is the best grade you can get” they say 100%, then I ask them what that means. They say it means I got all of them correct and I say yes, it’s the whole amount of questions right and that percents are always out of 100.(SMP2) Now that we know what 92% means, how are we going to predict how many flights will be on time of 1000? Allow students time to play around with these numbers. Asking questions about modeling or using a table to help them out would be helpful. Some students will use a ratio table while others may try to solve it using an equation(SMP 4). After students have had some time working with the math, allow them time to confer with their tablemates. Upon completion of the discussion, bring them back to a whole group discussion about how to solve. (while students are working on solving this problem, it may be a good idea to take note of different strategies and use these during the whole group discussion)
Using the following slides (population, rolling the dice, rolling the dice again, and car colors) have the students use their own strategies to solve the problems. Allow time for students to work independently and then have them justify their answers with their tablemates. Then bring the group back for whole group discussion.
I’m anticipating that most students will use a ratio table to help them find the answer. Students may set it up as an equation .92 x 1000 and they may even try to use equivalent fractions. All possibilities are viable answers, but will need to be explained in words why it works.
Once the heart of the instruction is complete, the students should be ready for the activity. They will need paper, pencil and a calculator for this activity.
I chose this activity because the essence of the lesson is to get to students to understand how to make predictions with probability. This activity supports SMP3 as they are working in groups of 2,3,4 and having to justify their answer to their group.
The final question of the day supports the objective of learning to make predictions with probability. I’m going to ask the students again, what it means to make a prediction and I will offer this up to the whole group. Then I’m going to ask how this connects with probability? Once we have discussed this as a whole group, I’m going to have them complete the final question from the power point. This question not only makes them set up a probability (7/11 are red) but also makes them predict how many times it should happen when repeated 99 times. (the connection between probability and predictions)